2017 annual investment outlook of the hottest mach

2022-08-13
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The 2017 annual investment outlook of the mechanical equipment industry

the overall prosperity of the special mechanical equipment industry will remain low, and the performance of sub industries and individual stocks may continue to differentiate. China's economic growth may be in the "L" type steady decline channel for a long time. The overall demand decline caused by de capacity and de leverage has led to the continued downturn in the prosperity of the machinery industry. The overall prosperity of the special machinery and equipment industry will remain low, and the performance of sub industries and individual stocks may continue to differentiate. China's economic growth may be in an L-shaped steady decline channel for a long time. The decline in overall demand caused by de capacity and de leverage has led to a continued downturn in the prosperity of the machinery industry. Structural adjustment is still the main theme of the development of the machinery industry in 2017. With the gradual liquidation of the market, some cyclical industries took the lead in hitting the bottom; With the increasingly fierce competition at the enterprise level, the importance of technological innovation will become more obvious. The performance differentiation of industries and individual stocks will continue

maintain the neutral rating of the industry and explore investment opportunities through two main lines. The overall performance of the industry in is difficult to improve significantly, and the valuation level of the industry will remain high and maintain a neutral rating. However, the process of capacity reduction is accompanied by the improvement of market concentration, and high-quality enterprises have the opportunity to become stronger and bigger. The performance differentiation of sub sectors and individual stocks will be more prominent, and investment opportunities will appear. We comb from two main lines: 1) the cyclical investment opportunities brought by the bottom of the cycle are clear: focus on construction machinery, oil and gas equipment, and rail transit; 2) Thematic investment opportunities representing the direction of technological innovation and other hot spots of investment: focus on artificial intelligence, aircraft passenger to cargo, automobile disassembly market and other fields

construction machinery: the industry has ushered in a cyclical rebound, and the cost side determines the resilience of individual stocks. Since the third quarter of this year, the sales of China's main construction machinery products have been eye-catching. The sales of excavators in September and October increased by 71.40% and 71.36% year-on-year respectively. Driven by the rising prosperity of infrastructure investment and the liquidation of the secondary market, the hot market in next month is expected to continue, and the construction machinery sector is expected to usher in a round of cyclical investment opportunities. With the general improvement of the income side, we believe that the quality of cost side control will become the key to the performance elasticity of individual stocks, and accounts receivable is the largest variable. According to this logic, Liu Gong is recommended

oil and gas equipment: the industry bottomed out and rebounded. Pay attention to the investment brought by the decline in the cost of crude oil exploitation in the United States. Such a thick latex sample only needs a small force value to stretch the sample for a long time. The international oil price rebounded after hitting the bottom in February, entering the dollar/barrel and fluctuated repeatedly. Benefiting from the recovery of oil prices, the boom of oil and gas exploitation bottomed out and rebounded. The number of active drilling rigs in the United States has increased for four consecutive months since June this year. The performance of the three major international oil service companies has improved significantly, and the oil and gas equipment and service industry has ushered in a cyclical inflection point. In addition, the cost of crude oil exploitation in the United States continues to decline, with the cost of conventional crude oil exploitation reduced to USD/barrel and the cost of shale oil exploitation reduced to USD/barrel. With the continuous decline in the cost of crude oil exploitation in the United States and the implementation of the policy of supporting the oil and gas industry after trump took office, the U.S. crude oil exploitation industry will usher in a strong recovery in the next few years. We are optimistic about Dawson shares, Jerry shares, and Houpu shares and furuite equipment, which benefit from the narrowing of oil and gas price difference

rail transit: urban rail transit has ushered in a period of high-speed development, and the popularity of railway construction has not decreased. China plans to add 3000 kilometers of urban rail mileage in the 13th five year plan. According to the progress of construction in progress and line planning, the annual new mileage of urban rail will continue to grow. The national development and Reform Commission issued a new version of the medium and long term railway plan, which plans to have a railway scale of 150000 kilometers in 2020. Rail transit construction is an important part of national infrastructure investment. In, China's rail transit investment showed an upward trend. It is suggested to focus on rail transit equipment manufacturing enterprises that have competitive advantages in subdivisions, such as Kangni electromechanical (rail transit door system), Zhonghe Technology (rail transit communication number system), and Huawu Co., Ltd. (rail transit braking system)

artificial intelligence: open a new stage of industrial automation, and machine vision opens a new horizon. According to the driving force, demand characteristics, technologies such as rubber and plastic, metal processing, paint and ink, personal care, packaging, medicine, a new green and environmental friendly automotive material, food and beverage, automobile and renewable energy, we divide the process of industrial automation into two stages. At present, China's industrial automation has entered the second stage, and the disappearance of demographic dividends and consumption upgrading have become the main driving forces. In the future, more and more automation companies will take the initiative to embrace artificial intelligence, so as to provide a new solution to the problem of machine replacing artificial labor under non-standard and complex working conditions. Machine vision and artificial intelligence help to break through the bottleneck of the development of industrial automation in China at the present stage. It is recommended that the target of the successful implementation of artificial intelligence technology in the field of industrial automation - Jingshan light machinery. At the same time, it is recommended that Jintuo shares, Yongchuang intelligent energy and Meiya optoelectronics have development potential in the field of machine vision

aircraft passenger to cargo market: the demand of express industry is booming, and channel and qualification are the key to profitability. Indicators such as the purchase cost of passenger to cargo aircraft, the stock of modified aircraft sources and the decline in fuel prices are the main factors determining the global market for passenger to cargo aircraft. From the domestic market, the current stock of second-hand cargo machines is very small; With the improvement of the prosperity of China's cargo airlines and the increase of capital expenditure caused by the intensive listing of express delivery enterprises, the customer to cargo market will usher in a blowout period. At the company level, the source channel and refitting qualification are the core competitiveness. We mainly recommend Shanhe intelligence and pay attention to Haite high tech and Hangxin technology

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